Bitcoin is still at a very dangerous position, and the price is currently dancing around the important $114,000 support. ThrowingToken.com is here to provide a balanced analysis of the factors influencing Bitcoin's price, offering actionable advice for traders looking to navigate these uncertain times. This technical analysis will take a look at bullish and bearish scenarios, factoring in technical indicators, ETF flows, macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments.
Analyzing Bitcoin ETF Flows
Bitcoin ETFs are yet another force to consider in Bitcoin’s price dynamic. New data shows a very different picture, underscoring just how much volatility and unpredictability exists in today’s market.
On August 4, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs had their largest ever daily total net outflow of $323.5 million. At the same time, Grayscale’s GBTC wasn’t spared either, reporting an outflow of $9.9 million. Funds continue to pour into established ETFs such as GBTC. Investors are smart and starting to demand more favorable fee structures and other investment alternatives.
What these flow data reveal is the very large amount of variability inherent in daily flows. On July 17, 2025—the peak inflow day—the total inflow was $522.6 million. Just four days later, on July 21, 2025, the total outflow had decreased to $131.4 million. This ups and downs highlight just how tightly a Bitcoin ETF's leash is held by market sentiment and macroeconomic news. Over the period we studied, that average daily inflow was a staggering $137.7 million. IBIT and FBTC were featured as leading contributors, pushing the overall flow to an all-time high of $53,831 million.
Ultimately, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs is a key indicator of institutional and retail investor interest, and traders should closely monitor these flows to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin
Beyond ETF flows, other macroeconomic factors are impacting Bitcoin’s price. It’s important to understand all these factors to make better trading decisions.
Additionally, a very strong US dollar can hurt Bitcoin returns since it essentially increases the local currency cost of Bitcoin to non-dollar based investors. The correlation indicates that as Treasury yields increase, Bitcoin price increases. This is particularly the case due to the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an alternative investment when interest rates are climbing due to investor FOMO.
US employment data plays a role. Good labor market news is often met with sell-offs. Such was the case in July 2025 when the headlines predictably blared that the Federal Reserve was taking a more hawkish orientation. Any changes in Federal Reserve policies, like interest rate hikes or changes related to quantitative tightening, will often have a major effect on Bitcoin’s upswings and downswings.
Evolving regulatory frameworks as in the case of requiring reserve holdings by stablecoin issuers are an important factor on Bitcoin’s price. They shape baseline stability and confidence in the nascent cryptocurrency market.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for Bitcoin
Given the current market conditions, it's essential to consider both bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement.
Bearish Scenario
As long as Bitcoin remains above the $113,800 support level, the chances of a major correction seem low. That would be enough for a new local low to fall below last Thursday’s value. A drop below $113,800 would likely accelerate the move towards at least multi-year lows. This would mark the end of the FOMO-driven boom and bust cycles we’ve had so far.
Bullish Scenario
If Bitcoin can break back above $120,200, it may be indicating true strength and a possible confirmation of a new upward trend. This like imply that the buyers are making a comeback as stormy offering pressuring, possibly clearing the path for continued advantages.
Actionable Advice for Traders
Suppose you own or are going to use Bitcoin for your business. Here are some actionable steps traders can take:
- Implement strong security measures: Use two-factor authentication and consider utilizing hardware wallets to store digital assets offline.
- Use a risk assessment matrix: The Crypto Risk Assessment Matrix (C-RAM) model is an effective approach to managing risk, which applies on both national and international levels.
- Conduct risk identification, analysis, assessment, and treatment planning: By following these four key steps, traders can proactively manage potential risks and navigate the challenges inherent in cryptocurrency investments.
- Assess the credibility and expertise of the company behind a cryptocurrency project: Delve into the company behind a particular cryptocurrency project to evaluate their credibility and expertise.
- Monitor and manage exposure to market fluctuations: Be aware of the high volatility and rapid market fluctuations in crypto investments and take steps to mitigate potential losses.
By understanding the factors influencing Bitcoin's price and implementing sound risk management strategies, traders can better navigate the potential volatility and capitalize on opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
