So Immutable really did flip Ethereum in weekly NFT sales. Cue the champagne, right? Not so fast. As exciting as the headlines may be blaring with “Ethereum Killer”, let’s pump the brakes and add in a touch of reality here. This isn’t a coronation, to be clear — it’s better understood as a dazzling joust of sorts.

Volume Surge, But At What Cost?

Immutable, powered by Guild of Guardians, is indeed having a moment. $34.9 million in NFT sales is not something to be ignored, particularly when you stack that up next to Ethereum’s $25.8 million. The increase of 21% in sales for Guild of Guardians Heroes NFTs is, to be frank, exceptional. It's a testament to their marketing and the game's apparent appeal.

Here's where the anxiety creeps in. Disregard the headline number and the accompanying hype. The total unique active wallets communicating with Immutable’s games are down 17% over the past 30 days. Let me repeat that: NFT sales are up, but active users are down. Does that sound sustainable to you? It’s akin to a restaurant celebrating all-time high receipts as fewer and fewer customers come back. Something isn't adding up, is it?

To me, this seems like a pretty textbook example of incentivized quota. Are these truly real users, or are we looking at the impact of incentives and speculative trading artificially inflating all user activity metrics? Are the whales playing the game? If the incentives evaporate overnight, what happens to that new volume? This isn’t meant as a slight against Guild of Guardians. After all, it’s not just a question of profit centres, but long term viability for Immutable as a whole.

IMX Token: Double Bottom or Double Trouble?

The IMX token is apparently forming a bullish double-bottom pattern, with analysts forecasting a possible 98% breakout. Sounds great, right? An opportunity to get cool points from your pals really. Hold on. Remember, technical analysis isn’t a science – it’s an art. That $0.3458 support level is crucial. One drop below that, and that bullish hope vanishes faster than you can say “rug pull.” On the other hand, fear is arguably one of the strongest market forces as it’s a fantastic motivator.

Let's not ignore the elephant in the room: the increasing supply of IMX tokens on exchanges. From 136 million as of March to 174 million today. Any basic economic principles will tell you that more supply will put downward pressure on price. It’s the same thing as printing more money, the value just gets eroded. Are we seeing a dilution play here? Surprise!

This isn't about hating on IMX. It's about being realistic. The price has been in a negative trend over the last 3 months. A double bottom is an indication that momentum may be reversing, but it’s not a sure thing. Don't bet the farm on it.

Another "Flippening"? Remember the Past.

We've seen this movie before. You remember a few months back when everyone thought Solana was going to kill Ethereum. Or EOS? The crypto graveyard is full of “Ethereum Killers” that went nowhere. This isn't to say Immutable can't succeed. It could. History shows us that the incumbent hardly ever gives up its title without a struggle. Similarly, joy for Immutable today could lead to despondence tomorrow.

Ethereum isn't sitting still. It has its own scaling solutions in the pipeline, its own booming ecosystem, and a huge network effect. It’s the Bitcoin of the NFT-sphere – battle-tested and thoroughly entrenched.

Immutable’s success is a wake-up call to Ethereum, pushing the protocol’s developers to innovate and improve. Competition is good for the market. Yet to declare victory after just one week of data is, at best, an overreach. It’s akin to crowning a Premier League football team halfway through the season.

Ultimately, this isn't about tribalism. It's about pragmatism. Immutable has created something truly special and Guild of Guardians is leading the charge with great volume. But sustainability takes a lot more than pizzazz and temporary carrots. It takes the right ecosystem, strong user growth and a sustainable token model that drives long-term value.

So, just like that, Immutable is an Ethereum Killer. Is it a top player in the NFT sector? Without a doubt. However, hold those cheers and trumpets until they prove they can walk the walk before we anoint them undisputed champion. This is a marathon, not a sprint. In the world of crypto, the race is never really over. Can Immutable escape the wrath and rage that most other “Ethereum Killers” suffered? Let’s see if they can meet their ambitious commitments.