Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, he is a famous on-chain analyst. He argues that the Bitcoin market dynamics are in the middle of a massive structural change. Artificially manipulated and financially driven Bitcoin cycles are history. Ju likens the current environment to a game of “Musical Chairs,” where miners, individual investors, and new types of whales are competing in unprecedented fashions. Combined with the introduction of significant institutional liquidity, introduced with the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, a new landscape is being formed. Navigating the opportunities and challenges of 2025 will require a keen understanding of how this institutional influx affects Bitcoin's trajectory.
The overall Bitcoin market has shifted considerably since 2017. Once a space ruled by miners, individual investors and the old guard of whales, it’s become an industry open to a tsunami of newcomers and new players. To help respond to this shift, it requires us to re-think traditional market indicators and predictive models. Ju’s analysis definitely points to a richer, more nuanced and far less cyclical sounding future for Bitcoin cycles.
The End of an Era?
Previously, Bitcoin cycles were mainly regulated by a familiar dynamic dance between major actors. Ki Young Ju, galaxy.com kiyoskinotes that the market used to be controlled by miners, small retail and legacy whales. He had, after all, just declared that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over,” comments he was soon forced to retract.
"It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak" - Ki Young Ju
This predictability was a result of the known habits of these parties. The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with their accompanying tidal wave of institutional liquidity, put an end to that old playbook.
The entrance of institutional investors like this is a clear break from the previous approach. These participants come with deep pockets and advanced trading tactics/algorithms, impacting the supply-demand balance of Bitcoin. Those daily ETF volumes now nearing $10 billion are a reminder of that scale, that new force.
Institutional Liquidity Reshapes the Market
Though we still have 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs to thank for it, we’ve entered a new era of institutional liquidity. This influx of capital is changing the fundamental dynamics of the Bitcoin market and quickly making many of our previous analytical models outdated.
"New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi" - Ki Young Ju
Ki Young Ju argues that this merging with traditional finance (TradFi) brings in novel risks and complications. Knowing the behavior and impact of these institutional players will be critical to lawyering Bitcoin’s future.
The complex, significantly diverse market we now serve requires very different analytical tools to support our decisions. Ki Young Ju has created a new chart, “Signal 365 MA,” to give context to this new, altered market. This tool is designed to assist investors navigate this new landscape and find new opportunities and risks that lie ahead.
Analyzing the New Landscape
Today’s Bitcoin ecosystem is much more colorful than ye olden days of being able to spend BTC at TigerDirect. The entrance of these institutional players and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has drastically changed the game.
Today’s market landscape appears markedly different from the conditions in 2018 and 2022. Historically, Bitcoin charts were flooded with dramatic dips below the 365-day moving average whenever entering a bear market. Whether the surge in institutional involvement will help prevent such drastic declines, or even worse, inject volatility of its own remains to be seen.
These are the principles that had managed Bitcoin cycles in the past, but perhaps not all of them are in full effect anymore. The entry of these new players has created the need for a new understanding of market dynamics and the creation of new analytical tools to help.
